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What does Intrade think about the US Election?

February 23, 2008

Using Intrade prices to look at the election

I’ve used the last traded prices as my guide. I’ve classified all states that have a 90% or greater chance of going to one party as STRONG, 65-89 as MODERATE and 50-65 as WEAK.

STRONG REPUBLICAN (12 states): ID, AK, ND, UT, WY, KY, AL, GA, MT, NE, SD, TX
MODERATE REPUBLICAN (10 states): LA, MS, KS, OK, SC, AZ, NC, TN, WV, IN
WEAK REPUBLICAN (5 states): AR, NV, FL, MO, VA

STRONG DEMOCRAT (12 states): DC, RI, MA, NY, MD, VT, HI, IL, DE, CT, ME, CA
MODERATE DEMOCRAT (9 states): NJ, OR, MI, MN, WA, WI, PA, OH, NH
WEAK DEMOCRAT (3 states): NM, IA, CO

So the median outcome should presumably be the Republicans getting 27 states (the current Spreadfair prices are 26.5-27.5) and a 322-216 Democrat victory (the current Spreadfair midpoints are predicting only a 281-247 Democratic margin). If you are interested in arbitrage it might be worthwhile betting on the Democrats in some of the close states and balancing it out with a long position on Republican Electoral Vote spreads, or going short the Republicans in the EV spreads and long in the state contests.

Given that my predictions involve the Republicans getting at least 35 states if Hillary is the candidate and 40 if Obama is heading the ticket, I believe that there is a lot of value in these stats.

Delaware, California, Michigan, New York New Jersey come to mind.

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