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Will today caucuses push Huckabee out of the contest?

February 9, 2008

Will voters in Lousiana, Kansas and Washington put the final nail in Huckabee’s coffin?

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Tonight there are Republican caucuses in Kansas and Washington and a primary in Louisiana. Only 77 delegates are up for grabs these contests will signal whether Huckabee has any hope of mounting an effective last ditch challenge to McCain. My guess is that McCain’s decision not to campaign in any of those states will hurt him. He has always done best in contests when he can do a lot of retail hand-to-hand campaigning and less so when he hasn’t campaigned. On Super Tuesday he beat Romney convincingly in California and even ran Romney close in his home state. However, he failed to win Minnesota and was destroyed earlier in Nevada and Maine. However, my prediction is that Huckabee will win Lousiana and come close in Kansas, but that McCain will win convincingly in Washington. This will probably be just enough to keep him in the contest until he is swept in Maryland and Virginia on the 12th. I predict that Huckabee will be forced out by the end of next week, which is what Romney intended when he withdrew.

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One comment

  1. Still sticking to your guns here? It seems pretty clear that you’re a McCain backer, but you’ve gotta admit that his support is pretty tenuous in Red America. He’s struggled to top 35% in most of the South, and even as the presumed nominee, he still lost Louisiana…

    What happens if McCain loses Virginia, and Texas next month? Clearly McCain will win the GOP nomination by sheer numbers alone, but these humiliating losses in deep red territory certainly can’t be good for his chances in November…



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