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Who do the markets think is most electable?

February 7, 2008

Betting on Intrade.com suggests that Hillary Clinton is as equally electable as Barack Obama

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One interesting thing you can do with Intrade is to see what punters think about the electability of Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton is the more electable candidate. Assuming that neither of them is going to run on a third party ticket (or that they are replaced afer the convention) if they lose the nomination you can measure their perceived electability by comparing the chances of Obama and Clinton getting the nomination with those of them ending up in the White House (all prices are the last traded price).

Hillary Clinton = Chances of Hillary becoming President: 28, Probability of Hillary winning the nomination: 42.9 = Implied Electability is 65.25%

Barack Obama = Chances of Obama becoming President: 36.5 , Probability of Hillary winning the nomination: 56 = Implied Electability is 65.17%

Interestingly, the markets favour their chances pretty much equally with Hillary fractionally ahead. I believe that this is nonsense and that McCain should deal with them easily. In fact I would bet against either becoming President, although Obama is the most overvalued.

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One comment

  1. According to the data compiled on a poll on http://www.lastpresidentstanding.com, Obama is leading Clinton for people’s votes.



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