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Final Super Tuesday Predictions

February 5, 2008

TPT Predicts Tonight’s Results

To be honest, I’m facing a dilemma. There are simply too may states and too many polls to do any proper projections so I’m going to have to go on the gut instinct that I’ve developed from closely observing this contest:

The Democrat Side : I’m going to predict that Hillary will score an upset tonight. It’s not just that I think Obama is not a credible candidate but that I believe that he has done best when people view him as a protest candidate or when they wanted to send a message. In Iowa they wanted to make sure that Hillary knew that there was going to be a contest and in South Carolina the general perception was that Hillary was too sure of herself. Now that Barack Obama is doing well enough to make him the nominee is a real possibility, people will move to Hillary. My guess is that Hillary will win in California and sweep the North-East. Obama will do moderately well in the South and the MidWest but he will be out by the end of the week.

The Republican Side: The polls are solid enough for McCain in the North-East and he has been solidifying his lead in the Midwest and South. However, his ludicrous decision to spend time in Massachusetts today may prove his undoing. I’m pessimistic about California and I believe that Romney may even score an upset in Arizona. My guess is for McCain to get around 550 delegates and Romney to run him close.

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2 comments

  1. you lost ALL credibility with “out by the end of the week” — get a grip.

    Why aren’t you touting the “value” in the Obama Feb drop out contract? Because you have no money in there?

    You are clearly a GOP biased hack with nothing close to a finger on the pulse of U.S. opinion much less an understanding of delegate math and rules governing the Dem nomination.


  2. I thought the same about Hillary too, but I was disappointed. The Dems (including me) are really rooting for a Clinton-Obama ticket now — it’s the only way we’re gonna get out of a two way Dem campaign all the way through August. McCain did well enough, but, you’re right, he could have done better than go to Massachusetts.



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