Is there value in Hillary’s price?

February 4, 2008

While the markets move away from the New York Senator is there value in betting on her?


For the first time since the Iowa primary, Hillary’s position as frontrunner has slipped. Although she is technically still the favourite in the betting markets, her price is effectively trading at evens. There is also a discernable movement away towards Obama in the polls. However, I believe that this merely increases the value in a bet on her. The clumsy and hamfisted campaign in South Carolina may have made voters more reluctant to say that they will vote for her, but this may simply create a large number of ‘silent’ Clinton voters, as it obviously did in New Hampshire. At the same time the fact that tomorrow will be decisive will focus voters’ minds. After all Barack Obama has not addressed the central criticism of his campaign, namely his severe lack of experience. It is also important to recognise that late surges in the polls often tend to reflect sampling errors, as opposed to genuine changes. In both the Iowa caucus, and the South Carolina primary, attempts to extropolate polling trends left pundits (including myself) with egg on their face. The only positive thing for Obama is that the perception that the Republican race is finished, might encourage liberal republicans to register a vote against Hillary (though the latest Califronia polls should put a brake on such trends.

My guess is that Hillary is about 65% likely to win the nomination, making her price real value.


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