GOP Projections for CA, CT, DE, MO, NJ & NY

February 3, 2008

Predicting the ‘Big Six’


Although there are a large number of primaries and caucuses being carried out on Tuesday, there are only seven contests that are mostly (apart from a few delegates given to party grandees) Winner Take All. There is no doubt that two of these, Arizona and Utah, are going to go to John McCain and Mitt Romney respectively. So, I’ve decided to provide projections for the five remaining primaries and also the California primary, by virtue of its size. In total these will elect 412 pledged delegates. My current projections (based on all polls taken this year) are

California: McCain 37.77 Romney 31.11 Huckabee 8.27 Paul 4.04 = McCain + 6.66

Connecticut: McCain 46.67 Romney 27.3 Huckabee 9.45 Paul 2.68 = McCain + 19.37

Delaware: McCain 41 Romney 35 Huckabee 7 Paul 5 = McCain + 6

Missouri: McCain 30.25 Huckabee 30.12 Romney 27.48 Paul 4.11 = McCain + 0.13

New Jersey: McCain 45.63 Romney 25.99 Huckabee 8.57 Paul 6.81 = McCain by 19.84

New York: McCain 49.84 Romney 26.99 Huckabee 7.81 Paul 4.03 = McCain by 22.85

Essentially McCain is pretty much guaranteed 216 delegates from Tuesday, but everything else is up for grabs. This also shows how McCain is disadvantaged by having his support in the North-East, which is massively underrepresented in terms of delegates.


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