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Is there any more value in McCain’s price?

February 2, 2008

Does this chart represent real value?

mccain-momentum.png

John McCain’s price on winning the Republican nomination has reached 88 on Intrade.com. My belief is that although I would like to say that this represents great value it is only a slight underestimation (the price should be close to 95%). Anything can happen in a Presidential election and rumours of a last ditch attempt to stop McCain using the ‘favourite son’ tactic should not be discounted. Romney has also been clever in using his advantage in time and money to spend it on cacuses, which although unimportant in terms of momentum still bring him delegate. McCain may be the overwhelming favourite but one should not confuse Ronmey’s chances with those of Ron Paul.

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