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Huckabee leads McCain by 1.29%

January 19, 2008

The Palmetto State Looks to be edging Huckabee’s way

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Taking all the polls ending on January 6th to today inclusive, my projection is: Mike Huckabee 27.91, John McCain 26.62, Fred Thompson 15.37, Mitt Romney 13.19, Ron Paul 3.21 and Rudolph Giuliani 3.04. 10.66% of voters are still undecided.

Looking at the filtered data I am struck by the fact that many of the undecideds are going to Fred Thompson. Although I don’t like to make Kerry-esque predictions that cover both eventualities, or to contradict my own projections, my gut feel is that Fred Thompson will get around 21% of the final vote, because he is the only candidate who has a strong (-0.51) negative correlation with undecideds (indicating that they will probably go to him). However, this won’t be (in his words) enough to get him a ticket to the dance in Florida. Given that Mike Huckabee’s dismal results in Michigan, and his decision to imitate the rhetoric of Richard Santorum, has eliminated his claim to be the electable face of Social Conservatism, I predict that two candidates left standing will be John McCain and Mitt Romney.

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2 comments

  1. […] handfulofvalues wrote an interesting post today onHere’s a quick excerptThe Palmetto State Looks to be edging Huckabee’s way […]


  2. […] Jason wrote an interesting post today onHere’s a quick excerptThe Palmetto State Looks to be edging Huckabee’s way […]



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