h1

Some reflections on Michigan

January 16, 2008

TPT reflects on Romney’s victory

1. I really should not get involved with trying to second guess my projections. My decision to project Romney ahead but predict a McCain victory was a ‘Kerry-esque’ stunt too far. Although political betting is about anticipating changes in polling figures, there is a limit to the value that such analysis can add on election night.

2. This is a great night for Romney and a bad one for McCain, Huckabee and Giuliani. South Carolina is pretty much a three-way contest between Huckabee, McCain and Romney, with the latter two needing to come second to stay in the contest (Huckabee needs to win or he is finished).

3. McCain really needs to find his voice on economic issues. Although he is constrained by the need to appear more conservative than he actually is, he needs to go after Huckabee for his support of the ‘fair’ tax and Romney for his tax-dodging and incompetent management of a public works project as Governor.

4. McCain also needs to stop being so complacent. He cannot just hope to coast through the primaries. He is already taking hits from Rush Limbaugh and the people who are attempting to smear his record are starting to get some attention from the mainstream media.

5. Although the number of crossovers were reduced by the cold weather, McCain (and the Republican) party needs to move to the centre on economic issues. They are not going to hold every single state so they can’t simply rely on national security and Iraq.

6. Giuliani is dead. He’s finished behind Paul in Iowa and Michigan and behind Huckabee in New Hampshire. The fact that he fell behind the non candidacy of Fred Thompson was the final nail in the coffin.

7. If Huckabee is nominated he’s going to get crushed. While McCain has had to tone down his economic populism, Huckabee went in there with all his guns blazing. 16% of the vote indicates that if he gets the nomination the Republican party will get creamed.

Advertisements

4 comments

  1. […] Carol Moore Report wrote an interesting post today onHere’s a quick excerptTPT reflects on Romney’s victory 1. I really should not get involved with trying to second guess my projections. My decision to project Romney ahead but predict a McCain victory was a ‘Kerry-esque’ stunt too far. Although political betting is about anticipating changes in polling figures, there is a limit to the value that such analysis can add on election night. 2. This is a great night for Romney and a bad one for McCain, Huckabee and Giuliani. South Carolina is pretty much a three-way contest between Huckabee, McCain and Romney, with the latter two needing to come second to stay in the contest (Huckabee needs to win or he is finished). 3. McCain really needs to find his voice on economic issues. Although he is constrained by the need to appear more conservative than he actually is, he needs to go after Huckabee for his support of the ‘fair’ tax and Romney […] […]


  2. […] wasteofmyoxygen wrote an interesting post today onHere’s a quick excerptTPT reflects on Romney’s victory 1. I really should not get involved with trying to second guess my projections. My decision to project Romney ahead but predict a McCain victory was a ‘Kerry-esque’ stunt too far. Although political betting is about anticipating changes in polling figures, there is a limit to the value that such analysis can add on election night. 2. This is a great night for Romney and a bad one for McCain, Huckabee and Giuliani. South Carolina is pretty much a three-way contest between Huckabee, McCain and Romney, with the latter two needing to come second to stay in the contest (Huckabee needs to win or he is finished). 3. McCain really needs to find his voice on economic issues. Although he is constrained by the need to appear more conservative than he actually is, he needs to go after Huckabee for his support of the ‘fair’ tax and Romney […] […]


  3. […] Rodney Dunning wrote an interesting post today onHere’s a quick excerptTPT reflects on Romney’s victory 1. I really should not get involved with trying to second guess my projections. My decision to project Romney ahead but predict a McCain victory was a ‘Kerry-esque’ stunt too far. Although political betting is about anticipating changes in polling figures, there is a limit to the value that such analysis can add on election night. 2. This is a great night for Romney and a bad one for McCain, Huckabee and Giuliani. South Carolina is pretty much a three-way contest between Huckabee, McCain and Romney, with the latter two needing to come second to stay in the contest (Huckabee needs to win or he is finished). 3. McCain really needs to find his voice on economic issues. Although he is constrained by the need to appear more conservative than he actually is, he needs to go after Huckabee for his support of the ‘fair’ tax and Romney […] […]


  4. […] thepoliticaltipster added an interesting post today on Some reflections on MichiganHere’s a small reading […]



Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s

%d bloggers like this: