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Romney leads McCain by 0.95%

January 15, 2008

TPT’s final predictions for Michigan

With the Detroit News and Mitchell having produced polls that end on the 12th, my projection is: Mitt Romney 29.57, John McCain 28.62 Mike Huckabee 15.46 Ron Paul 7.04, Fred Thompson 4.42 and Rudolph Giuliani 3.04. The undecideds have shrunk to 11.85%. My guess is that pollsters are underestimating McCain’s support from Democrats and Independants, so I’m going to cross my fingers and give John McCain a 55% chance of winning tonight. It goes without saying that if Giuliani comes behind Ron Paul and Fred Thompson (or even one of those candidates) then he should pack up and endorse John McCain (though I can see Dick Morris getting him to endorse Huckabee). For the record my projections with the undecideds are (assuming that Duncan Hunter gets 0.5% of the vote and the other undecideds split proportionately) are: Romney 33.38, McCain 32.31, Huckabee 17.45, Paul 7.95, Thompson 4.99, Giuliani 3.43 and Duncan Hunter 0.5.. My guess is that Hillary has a 65% chance of getting the 50% she needs for a moral victory and a 75% chance of winning outright against uncomitted.

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10 comments

  1. […] ModernDay Publius wrote an interesting post today onHere’s a quick excerptTPT’s final predictions for Michigan With the Detroit News and Mitchell having produced polls that end on the 12th, my projection is: Mitt Romney 29.57, John McCain 28.62 Mike Huckabee 15.46 Ron Paul 7.04, Fred Thompson 4.42 and Rudolph Giuliani 3.04. The undecideds have shrunk to 11.85%. My guess is that pollsters are underestimating McCain’s support from Democrats and Independants, so I’m going to cross my fingers and give John McCain a 55% chance of winning tonight. It goes without saying that if Giuliani comes behind Ron Paul and Fred Thompson (or even one of those candidates) then he should pack up and endorse John McCain (though I can see Dick Morris getting him to endorse Huckabee). For the record my projections with the undecideds are (assuming that Duncan Hunter gets 0.5% of the vote and the other undecideds split proportionately) are: Romney 33.38, McCain 32.31, Huckabee 17.45, Paul 7.95, […] […]


  2. […] Doug Mataconis wrote an interesting post today onHere’s a quick excerptWith the Detroit News and Mitchell having produced polls that end on the 12th, my projection is: Mitt Romney 29.57, John McCain 28.62 Mike Huckabee 15.46 Ron Paul 7.04, Fred Thompson 4.42 and Rudolph Giuliani 3.04. … […]


  3. […] goldenticker wrote an interesting post today onHere’s a quick excerptTPT’s final predictions for Michigan With the Detroit News and Mitchell having produced polls that end on the 12th, my projection is: Mitt Romney 29.57, John McCain 28.62 Mike Huckabee 15.46 Ron Paul 7.04, Fred Thompson 4.42 and Rudolph Giuliani 3.04. The undecideds have shrunk to 11.85%. My guess is that pollsters are underestimating McCain’s support from Democrats and Independants, so I’m going to cross my fingers and give John McCain a 55% chance of winning tonight. It goes without saying that if Giuliani comes behind Ron Paul and Fred Thompson (or even one of those candidates) then he should pack up and endorse John McCain (though I can see Dick Morris getting him to endorse Huckabee). For the record my projections with the undecideds are (assuming that Duncan Hunter gets 0.5% of the vote and the other undecideds split proportionately) are: Romney 33.38, McCain 32.31, Huckabee 17.45, Paul 7.95, […] […]


  4. […] thepoliticaltipster wrote an interesting post today on Romney leads McCain by 0.95%Here’s a quick excerptWith the Detroit News and Mitchell having produced polls that end on the 12th, my projection is: Mitt Romney 29.57, John McCain 28.62 Mike Huckabee 15.46 Ron Paul 7.04, Fred Thompson 4.42 and Rudolph Giuliani 3.04. … […]


  5. […] thepoliticaltipster wrote an interesting post today on Romney leads McCain by 0.95%Here’s a quick excerptWith the Detroit News and Mitchell having produced polls that end on the 12th, my projection is: Mitt Romney 29.57, John McCain 28.62 Mike Huckabee 15.46 Ron Paul 7.04, Fred Thompson 4.42 and Rudolph Giuliani 3.04. … […]


  6. […] thepoliticaltipster wrote an interesting post today on Romney leads McCain by 0.95%Here’s a quick excerptFor the record my projections with the undecideds are (assuming that Duncan Hunter gets 0.5% of the vote and the other undecideds split proportionately) are: Romney 33.38, McCain 32.31, Huckabee 17.45, Paul 7.95, Thompson 4.99, … […]


  7. […] Christineâ??s Blog wrote an interesting post today onHere’s a quick excerpt TPT’s final predictions for Michigan With the Detroit News and Mitchell having produced polls that end on the 12th, my projection is: Mitt Romney 29.57, John McCain 28.62 Mike Huckabee 15.46 Ron Paul 7.04, Fred Thompson 4.42 and Rudolph Giuliani 3.04. The undecideds have shrunk to 11.85%. My guess is that pollsters are underestimating McCain’s support from Democrats and Independants, so I’m going to cross my fingers and give John McCain a 55% chance of winning tonight. It goes without saying […]


  8. […] fooser wrote an interesting post today onHere’s a quick excerptTPT’s final predictions for Michigan With the Detroit News and Mitchell having produced polls that end on the 12th, my projection is: Mitt Romney 29.57, John McCain 28.62 Mike Huckabee 15.46 Ron Paul 7.04, Fred Thompson 4.42 and Rudolph Giuliani 3.04. The undecideds have shrunk to 11.85%. My guess is that pollsters are underestimating McCain’s support from Democrats and Independants, so I’m going to cross my fingers and give John McCain a 55% chance of winning tonight. It goes without saying that if Giuliani comes behind Ron Paul and Fred Thompson (or even one of those candidates) then he should pack up and endorse John McCain (though I can see Dick Morris getting him to endorse Huckabee). For the record my projections with the undecideds are (assuming that Duncan Hunter gets 0.5% of the vote and the other undecideds split proportionately) are: Romney 33.38, McCain 32.31, Huckabee 17.45, Paul 7.95, […] […]


  9. […] HolyInheritance wrote an interesting post today onHere’s a quick excerptTPT’s final predictions for Michigan With the Detroit News and Mitchell having produced polls that end on the 12th, my projection is: Mitt Romney 29.57, John McCain 28.62 Mike Huckabee 15.46 Ron Paul 7.04, Fred Thompson 4.42 and Rudolph Giuliani 3.04. The undecideds have shrunk to 11.85%. My guess is that pollsters are underestimating McCain’s support from Democrats and Independants, so I’m going to cross my fingers and give John McCain a 55% chance of winning tonight. It goes without saying that if Giuliani comes behind Ron Paul and Fred Thompson (or even one of those candidates) then he should pack up and endorse John McCain (though I can see Dick Morris getting him to endorse Huckabee). For the record my projections with the undecideds are (assuming that Duncan Hunter gets 0.5% of the vote and the other undecideds split proportionately) are: Romney 33.38, McCain 32.31, Huckabee 17.45, Paul 7.95, […] […]


  10. […] The Political Tipster wrote an interesting post today on Romney leads McCain by 0.95%Here’s a quick excerpt46 Ron Paul 7. 04, Fred Thompson 4. 42 and Rudolph Giuliani 3. 04. The undecideds have shrunk to 11….It goes without saying that if Giuliani comes behind Ron Paul and Fred Thompson (or even one of those candidates)… […]



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