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Ranking the Republican candidates

January 14, 2008

McCain could wrap up the nomination tomorrow night. Even if he loses to Romney in Michigan he is still the frontrunner. However, he cannot be complacent.

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John McCain – If he wins tuesday night he has an 80% chance of winning the nomination and if he fails he still has about a 50% chance. However, he needs to keep with his message and really go after Huckabee’s support on the flat tax. Estimated chances of winning the nomination are around 65%. Price on Intrade.com 42.7-43.3. UNDERPRICED

Mike Huckabee – Huckabee’s populist message has surprisingly failed to ignite. If he can’t pull of a surprise victory in Michigan then his ability to win voters outside the Deep South will be called into question. It is also axiomatic that if he ends up facing John McCain then the even establishment and the base will rally around the Arizona senator. His chances of winning the nomination are 15%. Price on Intrade.com 14.7-14.8. SLIGHTLY UNDERVALUED.

Mitt Romney – He need to win Michigan and then somehow win in South Carolina, otherwise his goose is cooked. Price on Intrade.com 10% 12.1-13.7 OVERPRICED

Rudolph Giuliani. McCain has pretty much surpassed him as ‘none of the above’ alternative to both Romney and Huckabee. The fact that he trailed behind Huckabee in New Hampshire was pretty much the final nail in his coffin. Estimated chances of winning the nomination are around 5%. Price on Intrade.com 19.3-19.4. OVERPRICED

Fred Thompson – He might finally, according to the pundits, have put in a good performance in a debate, but his poll figures in Iowa are just not responding.. Estimated chances of winning the nomination are about 5% Price on Intrade.com 3.4-3.5. UNDERVALUED

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