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Some thoughts on last night

January 9, 2008

TPT analyses the New Hampshire Primary

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1. McCain is now clearly the frontrunner for the GOP nomination and has at least a 50% chance of winning it.

2. Likewise, Hillary should comfortably win the Democrat nomination (about a 80% chance).

3. Although racism and the ‘Bradley effect’ have been cited across the blogosphere as contributors to Obama’s defeat, the treal reason what probably closer to the ‘silent Conservative’ problem where people are afraid to admit that they are more hawkish and Conservative than they actually are, especially when it is seen as ‘unhip’ not to support a particular candidate (the British election of 1992 and the US Election of 2004 were textbook examples of this).

4. Iran also played a major part since it reminded people of the foreign policy challenges that the next President is going to face. The fact that McCain actually polled better among registered Republicans than independants says it all.

5. Hillary needs to learn the lesson from the last fortnight, which is that she should stick to substance rather than hitting below the belt and that a little humility goes a long way.

6. McCain needs to really push his retraining programme in Michigan. Provided he keeps to the trifecta of Iraq, retraining and cleaning up Washington he could easily push Mitt Romney into third (Huckabee will sew up the protectionist vote).

7. Although I dislike Hillary for her sleazy ethics and the insincerity of her support for the liberation of Iraq (and her readiness to disassociate herself from it), Hillary is miles better than the empty suit that is Barack Obama. Obama (and possibly Huckabee) is the only candidate who could actually allow the terrorists to do some major damage in the Middle East (although Hillary’s enthusiasm for withdrawing from Iraq will lead to the re-enslavement of the Iraqi people). Similarly, although Romney has been a successful businessperson, America does not need a Powerpoint Presidency.

8. Along with John McCain, the big winner of the Republican primary is Joe Lieberman. His endorsement lifted McCain from the mid teens, and made him a serious contender for New Hampshire. It also bumped him past Ron Paul and Rudolph Giuliani in Iowa. The fact that Daily Kos’s prediction of a Romney victory was disproved was just the icing on the cake.

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One comment

  1. […] Joe Tobacco wrote an interesting post today onHere’s a quick excerptTPT analyses the New Hampshire Primary […]



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