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Predictions for tonight

January 8, 2008

TPT’s final predictions for New Hampshire

I am going to produce two sets of projections; traditional vote share predictions and probabilistic predictions.

For both primaries I’m going to make the assumption that undecides split in roughly the same proportion as the voters who have already decided. So for the Democrat side I am prediciting: Barack Obama 41.56, Hillary Clinton 32.40, John Edwards 19.47 and Bill Richardson 6.14. For the Republicans I am going to predict: John McCain 35.10 Mitt Romney 31.24, Mike Huckabee 12.17, Rudolph Giuliani 10.32 and Ron Paul 8.69 Fred Thompson 2.49% (Hunter will get less than 1% and probably something too small to count). In terms of probabilities I’m going to give Obama a 95% chance of winning and McCain a 70% chance. In terms of the GOP contest I have my fingers crossed for a McCain victory and for the Dems I hope that Hillary can bounce back (though as a non-American I really shouldn’t be saying this).

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