McCain leads by 4.04%

January 5, 2008

The Senator from Arizona leads Romney in the last of the pre-Iowa polls.

Incorperating the last of the Iowa polls into a compilation of polls from December onwards produces the following projections (courtesy of Samplemiser): McCain 32.2 Romney 28.16 Huckabee 11.7 Giuliani 8.8 Paul 7.78 Thompson 1.73. The race is extremly close and McCain should not assume that it will be a walkover. In fact I’m going to guess that McCain will (unfortunately) not win by more than 5%. The raw data is here.


Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )


Connecting to %s

%d bloggers like this: