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McCain leads by 4.04%

January 5, 2008

The Senator from Arizona leads Romney in the last of the pre-Iowa polls.

Incorperating the last of the Iowa polls into a compilation of polls from December onwards produces the following projections (courtesy of Samplemiser): McCain 32.2 Romney 28.16 Huckabee 11.7 Giuliani 8.8 Paul 7.78 Thompson 1.73. The race is extremly close and McCain should not assume that it will be a walkover. In fact I’m going to guess that McCain will (unfortunately) not win by more than 5%. The raw data is here.

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