Final predictions for Iowa

January 3, 2008

 Where is the value in the Iowa betting? 


I’m not going to post any polling predictions because I’ve already made my polling projections but I am going to suggest that the following probabilities should be in play:

Clinton 40%, Obama 35% – Edwards 25%

The value is clearly in betting against Obama, (66.1-69.9) as of 7:55 GMT, because although there are reports that Kucinich, Biden and Richardson are going to enocourage their supporters to give him their second preferences, I’m going to go with my projections. Also a Insider Advantage poll showed Clinton, Edwards & Obama in a statistical dead heat after second preferences were shown.

Romney & Huckabee – 50 each

The value is betting on Romney (25.1-29.8 on Intrade). My projections say Huckabee but my gut says Romney so I’m going to sit on the fence. Bear in mind that I have a lot of money riding on a McCain victory so I’m naturally fearing the worst. In any case I think Thompson will come third.


Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )


Connecting to %s

%d bloggers like this: