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Final predictions for Iowa

January 3, 2008

 Where is the value in the Iowa betting? 

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I’m not going to post any polling predictions because I’ve already made my polling projections but I am going to suggest that the following probabilities should be in play:

Clinton 40%, Obama 35% – Edwards 25%

The value is clearly in betting against Obama, (66.1-69.9) as of 7:55 GMT, because although there are reports that Kucinich, Biden and Richardson are going to enocourage their supporters to give him their second preferences, I’m going to go with my projections. Also a Insider Advantage poll showed Clinton, Edwards & Obama in a statistical dead heat after second preferences were shown.

Romney & Huckabee – 50 each

The value is betting on Romney (25.1-29.8 on Intrade). My projections say Huckabee but my gut says Romney so I’m going to sit on the fence. Bear in mind that I have a lot of money riding on a McCain victory so I’m naturally fearing the worst. In any case I think Thompson will come third.

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