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Obama leads the Iowa polls

January 3, 2008

…but Clinton is projected as the winner.

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My projection for Iowa (as of 1:30pm GMT) is as follows: Obama 28.41 Clinton 27.99 Edwards 25.91 Richardson 6.88 Biden 4.02. Using some modified assumptions (Undecideds split between Obama and Edwards, Biden voters go to Obama, Richardson voters go to Obama and Clinton, Clinton voters go to Obama and Edwards, Obama and Edwards voters go to Clinton – Clinton, Obama and Edwards keep 75% of their votes and Biden and Richardson keep only 50%) I project that Clinton will confortably win the delegate count with Obama coming in second. Bear in mind this goes against most polling evidence which shows Edwards winning when second preferences are taken into account. The raw and filtered data are both here.

(Note: Since the December 29th Insider Advantage poll did not give figures for Biden and Richardson I made the assumption that they got 7% – this has a tiny affect on their figures).

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