Iowa comes down to the wire for the GOP

January 3, 2008

…but Huckabee has the edge.


Inputting the Zogby tracking poll to my collection (and ignoring all previous tracking polls because they overlap with the last one) produces the following projection (as of Noon GMT): Mike Huckabee 28.23 Mitt Romney 26.41 John McCain 12.13 Fred Thompson 11.91 Ron Paul 8.84 Rudolph Giuliani 6.89 (Duncan Hunter and Alan Keyes are not included because their support is marginal and they have not be included as an option in all the polls). The margin of error is just under 2% so this is a statistical dead heat for first and third. The numbers undecided have gone down to 5.59% and my prediction is that they will go to Mike Huckabee and Ron Paul (I would guess in a ratio of 4:1) since they are the only two candidates to have a negative correlation with the undecideds. I will update the figures if new polls come out later today but I have a horrible feeling that Romney will beat Huckabee and McCain will be pipped by Thompson.

(The raw data and the Samplemiser projections are here)


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