Betting Journal: Bought 5 contracts on a third party victory

December 18, 2007

I bought 5 more contracts on a third party/independant takeover of the White House. This is obviously a value bet if Romney or Huckabee wins the nomination. However, I predict that whichever of the five candidates wins the Republican nomination, disgruntled Ron Paulites will try to ramp this contract up – even if their candidate has no intention of running.



  1. Just started trading today.

    My “portfolio” in case you want to discuss. Current price in ()

    Dem Iowa caucus, which polls and pundits of all stripes agree is too close to call. I thought traders were giving way too much value to Obama:
    short 4 Obama at 61
    long 11 Clinton at 24.8
    long 11 Edwards at 17.4

    Hedged that a tad by buying Obama for President
    long 11 Obama at 20.2

    Took obvious advice here and . . .
    short 24 NH GOP Field at 22.3

    B.S. about Lieberman, endorsements etc. plus Huck/Romney skirmish led me to think McCain was undervalued (though I still think highly unlikely he wins . . .
    long 5 McCain at 10

    Giuliani is fading in Florida and Jeb Bush’s gang has Romneys’ back, so in GOP FL primary. . .
    long 4 Romney at 11

    That took care of my $300 initial deposit. Am ahead $21.25 for the day (and lifetime!).

    Contemplating sending a very large check so as to be able to short more Paul related stuff.

  2. Clarification: did not include current prices after all.

    The 5 McCains bought at 11 are for the NH primary.

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