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Ranking the Republican Candidates

December 16, 2007

McCain and Giuliani share the lead.

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The race is still very murky. Huckabee has a national lead, but seems to have peaked, Giuliani is in second place, but the real value seems to be in McCain.

Rudolph Giuliani – Giuliani is second in national polls but Huckabee seems to be taking a lot of flak from all sides now. Although a lot of people have written him off, there are few credible alternatives. Estimated chances of winning the nomination are around 30%. Price on Intrade.com 36-37. OVERPRICED

John McCain – If Romney looses in Iowa and McCain wins in New Hampshire he will clearly be the frontrunner. However, Romney could still save Iowa and nothing is certain anymore. Estimated chances of winning the nomination are around 30%. Price on Intrade.com 8.8-9.3. UNDERPRICED

Mike Huckabee – Huckabee is the new national leader, with a double figure lead in Iowa. However, he is being attacked from all sides and his candidacy suffers from the fact that he seen as too liberal for the base, while he is too conservative to do well nationally. For all his great polling figures Huckabee has also had surprising problems raising funds. His chances of winning the nomination are 20%. Price on Intrade.com 17-17.8. SLIGHTLY UNDERVALUED.

Mitt Romney – It would be silly to write Romney off, because he may still win Iowa. However, there is a solid anti-Romney bloc that he will have to contend with in the latter states, if he gets that far. Price on Intrade.com 23.4-25.7 OVERPRICED

Fred Thompson – He might finally, according to the pundits, have put in a good performance in a debate, but his poll figures in Iowa are just not responding.. Estimated chances of winning the nomination are about 5% Price on Intrade.com 4.2-5.4 FAIRLY VALUED

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