Can Romney hold his ‘firewall’?

December 11, 2007

Are the betting markets still overestimating the chances of Romney in New Hampshire?


Despite the fact that the last poll has Romney’s lead collapsing in New Hampshire to just 10 points the markets still have him as the favourite to win the Granite State with his price on Intrade being 60-68.4. I believe that the chances should be more like 40% for the following three reasons:

1. Not only is he likely to face defeat in Iowa, he could be forced into third place now that Fred Thompson is focusing all his resources in time in the Hawkeye state.

2. His more conservative tone on social issues will mean that he will enter New Hampshire as a ‘conservative’ candidate in a state where liberals and moderates have a much bigger influence on the process.

3. The scandals surrounding Giuliani means that his Romney’ main opponet will be McCain, so that he won’t gain from any tactical voting amoung Conservatives.

4. A possible Thompson resurgence and a Huckabee surge will mean that he will not have the undisputed support of more Conservative voters, while McCain’s endorsements will mean that the Senator from Arizona will possibly siphon off some votes from the right.

What do you think? Please leave you comments below.


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