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Huckabee’s lead expands to 17.69% but could he come unstuck?

December 10, 2007

Does this man really have Huckabee’s interests at heart?

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Inputting the latest polls into my spreadsheet and filtering them (download here iowa-101207.pdf) gives the following results: Huckabee 33.86 Romney 19.3 Fred Thompson 10.63 Rudolph Giuliani 6.88 John McCain 6.57 Ron Paul 4.46. However, one things that should worry his supporters (and backers like myself) is the fact that he has started to move noticeably to the Right. From his decision to stand by his unconscionable 1992 comments about AIDS sufferers to his right-wing immigration plan, Huckabee seems to be more bent on appealing to a fraction of the base that is already going to vote for him. At the same time Huckabee is still having problems raising enough money to fight in the later states (although McCain had that problem in 2000).

If I was cynical to the point of being conspiracy theory minded I would think that many of Huckabee’s supporters and backers were primarily interested taking down Mitt Romney. Indeed, Romney’s defeat would mean that Giuliani has a better chance at the nomination while Huckabee’s move to the right will limit his appeal to centrists, reducing his threat to the ex-mayor in states like New Hampshire and Florida. It is extremely significant that his unofficial advisor, Dick Morris, has now suddenly switched from pushing Huckabee to talking about how Giuliani can survive defeats in the early states. It should also be noted that supporting fringe candidates in order to destabilise opponents of the main candidate is a modus operandi of the infamous Republican consultant Roger Stone, who is a declared Giuliani supporter. Although these finals conjectures sound a little paranoid, I am going to take my profits when his price gets to a fair value of 25.

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