Filtered Polling Data: Conservative Majority of 48

December 1, 2007

There have been a flurry of British polls. Putting the latest the latest YouGov poll (neither the sample sizes nor the survey dates for the latest ComRes poll have been released) and all the other polls since August produces a Conservative majority of 48 when the data is put through Samplmiser. As of November 29, the predicted vote shares are Conservatives 42.53 Labour 31.57 Lib Dems 15.05. This produces a projection of 245 seats for Labour, 349 for the Conservatives and 25 for the Lib Dems. The only good news for Labour is that the Conservative share of the vote doesn’t seem to be reaching the 43% mark. However, this is very cold comfort indeed.



  1. Thanks, but after I checked I realised that I had incorperated the Com Res poll (the flurry of polls made me think that there was one that I had missed)!

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