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Filtered Polling Data: HUNG PARLIAMENT

November 18, 2007

Adding the latest YouGov poll to the previous polls only changes the picture slightly in terms of the popular vote. The predicted shares are Conservatives 41.06 Labour 35.01 Lib Dems 13.04. This produces a prediction of 296 seats for Labour (+15), 311 for the Conservatives (-10), ) and 14 for the Lib Dems (-5). The combined Conservative and Lib Democrat share of the vote is down to 54.1, suggest that it may be reverting to its ‘normal’ range of 50-53%. Overall, this is better news for Labour, especially since the tone of press coverage has been broadly negative, however they still need to take another 2% from the Conservatives to make the contest more competitive again. Brown really needs to seize the agenda, possibly by unequivocally stating that Northern Rock will be charged the full rate of interest on the emergency loan that the Bank of England made. Brown should also recognise that many of the short term gestures that he made in his appointments were not a success and that he should sack Mark Malloch Brown. Although this is better than the previous poll, Labour will need to improve things if a 2008 election is to be possible (although it still remains a value bet).

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