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Filtered Polling Data: HUNG PARLIAMENT

November 12, 2007

Inputting the latest ICM poll and putting the updated data through Samplemiser gives the following predicted voting shares: Conservatives 42.52 Labour 35.13 Lib Dems 15.04. Specifically, Baxter’s new model predicts 281 seats for Labour, 321 for the Conservatives and 19 for the Lib Dems (putting the previous figures into Baxter’s site gave Labour 340 seats, Conservatives 245 and Lib Dems 35). The Conservative party would be technically 5 short of a majority, although they would undoubtedly be able to form a government with the assistance of the various Ulster Unionist parties, or even function as a minority administration for a few months.

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