How will the crisis in Pakistan effect the Republican and Democrat contests?

November 9, 2007


Will voters move to the more experienced candidates?

Although the crisis in Pakistan seems to eventually resolving itself, with Musharraf agreeing to hold elections, there is still are large amount of disorder with Bhutto now under house arrest and a state of civil emergency still in place. However, although this may seem rather cold blooded, the impact that these events will have of the Presidential election should be examined. Supporters of Barack Obama will presumably claim that his willingness to send US troops on anti-Al Quaeda operations within Pakistan, without Musharraf’s consent, has now been vindicated. However, I believe that this incident will undoubtedly move Democrats towards to the more experienced Hillary Clinton. The Republican side is a little more difficult because there are clearly two candidates who have strong national security credentials; John McCain and Rudy Giuliani. The fact that they are both on the centrist wing of the Republican party further complicates matters. My view is that, because of the recent endorsement of Robertson, conservative switchers will move to Giuliani and McCain in equal numbers, although I believe that Romney will be the biggest loser.

What do you think? Give your opinion in the comments section.


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