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Is the contest for the Republican nomination over?

November 8, 2007

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Does Pat Robertson’s endorsement make Giuliani inevitable?

The story of the contest has to be Pat Robertson’s shock endorsement of Rudolph Giuliani. The controversial religious leader has shocked people by endorsing the former Mayor of New York. It is plainly undeniable that this is seriously good news for the former mayor, blunting the impact of Brownback’s endorsement of McCain and severely reducing the prospect of a third party revolt should Giuliani be nominated, but does this make him inevitable? My view is that this has reduced both the growing anti-Giuliani feeling that has been beginning to grow over the past month and the tentative signs that some on the right were even willing to consider John McCain if he was the only candidate who could stop Giuliani (though such sentiments were too small to make a significant difference to McCain’s campaign). However, the big loser from this is Romney, who had been very successful in getting endorsements from the Evangelical Right. Indeed, this decision may end up rallying anti-Giuliani forces behind Huckabee, as Robertson’s decision could trigger a backlash against such endorsements, due to the fact that the ‘rank and file’ of the Evangelical movement could perceive that their leaders are not willing to stand up for their beliefs. It should also be noted that Robertson’s influence with Evangelical’s has greatly diminshed since he ran for President in 1988. So, while this is a boost to Giuliani, Romney and McCain (in that order) are the biggest losers. The contest is still wide open, although less so than a few days ago.

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One comment

  1. I really don’t understand Giuliani’s supposed widespread support, I mean he has not one but two ex-wives that hate him, nobody respects his new twenty-something wife (ex-wife #3 wating to happen), his own kids will probably be in commercials bashing him, I mean this guy makes Bill Clinton look like a saint. It’s only a matter of time before the dems zero in on him and show the world the real Giuliani.



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