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Filtered Polling Data: LAB Majority 30

November 6, 2007

Inputting the latest Populus poll into SampleMiser gives a projection of Labour 36.84%, Conservatives 36.31% and the Lib Dems 15.87%. This means that Labour is now projected to have an overall majority of 30. Labour has 340 seats (42 more than the previous projection), the Conservative 245 (-59) and the Lib Democrats with 35 seats (+16). The combined Tory and Lib Dem vote has fallen to 52.18%, suggesting that the combined Conservative and Liberal support lies in a narrow range between 50-53%. The spin from Conservative supporters is that this represents an improvement from the last Populus poll, which gave a Labour lead of 2%. However, I think it is more logical to compare the latest Populus poll with the more recent polls from their competitors, rather than with a poll from early October.

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2 comments

  1. As all other British pollsters have a lead for the Conservatives why base a prediction on the only one that shows a Labour lead?


  2. Yes, but you don’t understand that my methodology gives weight to previous polls, as well as current ones (which is why my projected figures show a closer contest than the raw figures). However, it makes sense to give more recent polls more credance than earlier ones. Interestingly, the smoothed data is less volatile than you would think. Since the election was called off the contest has varied between a dead heat and a Conservative lead of up to 5%.



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