Filtered Polling Data: HUNG PARLIAMENT

November 3, 2007

Inputting the latest Mori poll into Sample Miser gives a projection of Conservatives 40.09%, Labour 34.88% and the Lib Dems 13.34%. This translates into a hung parliament with the Conservatives the largest party with 304 seats (+1 from previous projection), Labour second with 298 (+14) seats and the Lib Democrats with 19 seats (-11). The combined Tory and Lib Dem vote has fallen to 53.43%, suggesting that the last two polls overestimated the extent to which support for the Liberal Democrats has recovered.

The methodology that I use to create these polls is realtively simple; I take polling data from UK Polling Report (and from the Mori Archive) and filter it through Sample Miser to produce a final figure. I then put the national vote shares through Martin Baxter’s prediction website to get a projection in terms of seats.


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