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Filtered Polling Data: HUNG PARLIAMENT

October 31, 2007

Inputting the latest ComRes and ICM polls into Sample Miser gives a projection of Conservatives 40.52%, Labour 34.23% and the Lib Dems 16.81%. This translates into a hung parliament with the Conservatives the largest party with 303 seats, Labour second with 284 seats and the Lib Democrats with 30 seats. I’m still sceptical about these polls but it looks like the Lib Dem leadership contest has caused a movement away from Labour to the Lib Dems. However, I’m pretty sure that Labour will have re-established a lead by the end of the year.

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