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Betting Journal: Arbitrage

October 30, 2007

I bought 14 contracts on the Democrats to win the 2008 election, 14 more contracts on a 3rd party victory and 14 on a Republican Congress in 2008. Although I’ll produce a longer article tomorrow, I believe that if the GOP wins they will almost certainly recapture the House. Although this is not a pure arbitrage opportunity, the unpopularity of the Democratic leadership in Congress means that I predict that it is 90-95% likely to succeed, making it a good destination for the bulk of my payroll.

For the record I suggest that you buy equal numbers of the following contracts; Democrat victory (63-63.1), Independent victory (1.5-1.6), Republican control of House of Representatives (11-20).

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3 comments

  1. Just discovered your site in an attempt to understand the Presidential race. One initial query… what is Samplemiser?


  2. Sample Miser is a online progam that aims to filter out the noise from polls that is due to sampling error. It is described in more detail at:

    http://politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2006/12/29/guest-slot-rod-crosby-on-the-kalman-filter/

    Note: Samplemiser cannot filter out systematic biases (e.g. people’s natural tendancy to say what the pollster wants them to say).


  3. […] Did you like this brief introduction? Find out about it in full detail here. […]



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