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Filtered Polling Data: LAB Majority 12

October 29, 2007

Inputting the latest MORI poll and putting the updated data through Samplemiser gives the following predicted voting shares: Conservatives 40.85 Labour 38.45 Lib Dems 11.16. Martin Baxter has changed the methodology on his predictive website so this actully predicts a slighly worse outcome for Labour, despite the fact that the voting shares are more favourable for them. Specifically, Baxter’s new model predicts 331 seats for Labour, 283 for the Conservatives and 9 for the Lib Dems (putting the previous figures into Baxter’s site gives Labour 323 seats, Conservatives 289 and Lib Dems 11).

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