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Brownback bites the dust

October 20, 2007

Which other candidates will drop out of the contest before the Iowa caucus?

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The withdrawal of Senator Sam Brownback from the contest was not unexpected. Having got little traction in either the national polls his candidacy was essentially finished in August after his poor showing at Ames. However, this does raise the question of whether any more candidates are going to start dropping out of the field. On the Republican side it seems likely that Duncan Hunter’s campaign is going nowhere, and I would guess that he lacks the desire of either Ron Paul or Tom Tancredo to remain in the contest as a fringe candidate. Additionally, I wouldn’t be suprised to see Joe Biden dropping out soon. In terms of the offered markets on early withdrawals I am going to recommend that you put some money on John Edwards withdrawing. His campaign is going nowhere, even in Iowa, and he has already been forced to accept federal matching funds. His price on a withdrawal before the end of this year (7.8-10 at Intrade.com) is therefore a bargain, especially if the Iowa Caucus is moved to late December.

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