Market Call: LAY Clegg

October 17, 2007

Why I’m betting against Nick Clegg in the Lib Dem Leadership contest

I believe that Nick Clegg is the candidate to bet against at 1.68/1 because I feel that he seems to be unpopular with a certain section of the Liberal Democrat party. I’m more a value better than a market watcher but since the betting exchanges are very illiquid you may want to note that early this morning a single £1,000 order on him was placed on Betfair, so we can expect to see some considerable downward movement when the order is finally filled. It should also be noted that the increased attention that these markets now receive in the press may possibly explain any strange patterns. However, this post comes with the usual disclaimer that I am not a Liberal Democrat so I am not the best judge of internal Liberal politics.



  1. Can you show your working? eg “seems to be unpopular with a certain section of the Liberal Democrat party”

    Is that section big enough to matter for example?

  2. I have to admit that from the forums I’ve looked at there seems to be a group of people who have a degree of antipathy to Clegg that is absent for Huhne or the other candidates.

  3. thepoliticaltipster – you are quite wrong. Huhne pi**ed off a lot of people in the parliamentry part and grass roots by running when he said he would not and the way he has moved against Minf this time.
    Some may not like Nick’s politics but he as a man they do, while with Chris his personality is called in to question….or the lack of it to be precise!

  4. I think the “Section of the party” referred to is Mike Smithson 😉

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