Gore: the evening after

October 12, 2007

How would a Gore candidacy affect the race?


I believe that Al Gore will run for the Democratic nomination. This is not only because he has the best chance of stopping Hillary Clinton, but because he has left the draft movement go on for too longer. Although I disagree with most things that Gore stands for, and I think that John McCain and Joe Lieberman have done more for the environment, I think Gore would not be so irresponsible that he would let people spend large amounts of money on ads in the New York Times urging him to run if he were not prepared to do so. So how could a Gore entry change things? Firstly, the candidacies of Chris Dodd, Joseph Biden and John Edwards would pretty much be destroyed by Gore’s entry into the race. Their records pale in comparison with Gore’s and they lack the funds to keep running on their own. They are all fishing in the same antiwar pool as Gore, which means that they will lose much of their support overnight. Indeed, I am going to go out on a limb and predict that Biden and Dodd would withdraw within a fortnight and Edwards could bow out within a month of a Gore announcement. Obama will probably stay in the race until the New Year, not least because he raised so much money that he will have to spend it all (probably an extended futile advertising blitz) or face the embarassing prospect of returning it. Richardson will also stay in until Nevada, although he would be better placed to withdraw and concentrate on the New Mexico senate race and the prospect of 2008.

It goes without saying that Hillary will face the fight of her life with an opponent who has experience, support from the ‘nutroots’ that currently dominate the Democrats and the ability to raise large sums from both individuals and corporate donors in the technology sector. Although I think she will triumph, it certainly not the foregone conclusion the contest seems currently. A more interesting question is how will this affect the Republicans. On the one hand they will have some time to regroup, time which candidates like McCain sorely need. However, Gore’s presence could siphon off the independents that McCain, the strongest Republican candidate, will need if he has any chance of gaining the nominaition (or at least doing well enough to make a third party run credible). There is also the possibility that Joe Lieberman, whose prescence on the bottom half of the ticket is vital if the GOP wish to retain the White House, will be unable to run against Gore (though little love has been lost between the two since Gore both failed to endorse him in either 2004 or 2006). In the general election Gore’s prescense slightly move the field back in the GOP direction (although he should still be favourite against any candidate other than McCain) since he is to the left of Hillary and lacks her remorslessness (although the fact he isn’t so polarising increases the possiblity of a Democrat landslide).


One comment

  1. […] and John Edwards would pretty much be destroyed by Gores entry into the race…. source: Gore: the evening after, The Political […]

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