Are the Liberal Democrats up against the wall?

September 30, 2007

A look at British polling trends


 Although this web-log specialises in political commentary rather than polling data this site is pleased to present what will be an ongoing attempt to present the latest polling data, as smoothed by Samplemiser, a online program that aims to create polling trends from a series of polls. Although the data is still not completely certain, due to the fact that some polls have not yet disclosed their sample sizes, putting the last 13 surveys of British voting intention into the program produces the polling data that you see above. According to the filter the current polls suggest that, were the election to be held today, Labour would get 41.31%, the Tories would get 33.6% and the Lib Dems would get only 12.57%. Putting these figures in Martin Baxter’s website produces a Labour majority of 130, with the Liberal Democrats being reduced to 3 seats.

Even if we adjust the figures slightly to take 2% away from Labour and given 1% to the Conservatives and Lib Dems each and we assume that up to 10% of Labour and Conservative supporters vote tactically for the Liberals, Labour still increases its majority to 96 and the Lib Dems are stil reduced to 29 seats. These figures must surely give encouragement to both Gordon Brown and Labour supporters (like myself).


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