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Quick Recap of the Democrat Nomination

August 26, 2007

Why Hillary Should be Smiling

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Hillary Clinton – She’s still got a solid lead in the polls and all the other positives the she had at the end of July. At the same time Obama’s inexperience is becoming even more obvious, Edwards’ attempt to move to the left (like McCain’s move to the right) is badly backfiring and Bill Richardson is going nowhere. Although she is led by the anemic Mark Penn (who ran Joe Lieberman’s campaign in 2004 into the ground) she has other experience and talented operatives, including the ‘Rajun Cajun’ himself. Although it is extremely early to definitively call this race, barring an entry by either Mark Warner or Al Gore, she seems unassailable. Probability of winning the nomination is 65%. Price on Intrade.com 66.0-66.5 FAIRLY PRICED

Al Gore – Although Gore seems to be uninterested in running and he will need to develop some policies other than the environment, he is the only candidate with the experience and enough support with the base to challenge Hillary. He also has an extremely well organised group of supporters who are determined to draft him into the race, while his connections with technology companies will enable to match Hillary’s funds, if he so wishes. Probability of winning the nomination is 15%. Price on Intrade.com 7.6-7.9 UNDERPRICED

Barack Obama – It would be ludicrous to completely write-off a candidate who is a clear second in the opinion polls and enjoys considerable media support. However, it might be equally ludicrous to expect a person who has little experience beyond some involvement in Illinois local politics and four years in the Senate to deal with the huge economic, social and foreign policy problems that American faces. At best Obama is another Gary Hart, whose main objective will be to leverage this race into either second place in the ticket or frontrunner status in 2012. At worst this campaign has the potential to destroy his credibility for the next cycle. Probability of winning the nomination is 10% Price on Intrade.com 17.9-18 OVERPRICED

Bill Richardson / John Edwards – These two candidates both had the potential to be successful. However, Richardson has come off as extremely lightweight while Edwards has moved from a populist centrist to a far-left centrist (as previously noted John McCain has also made a similar mistake by moving to the right). Poverty, inequality and outsourcing are justifiably important issues. However, while there is room for someone who can address these issues from the centre there is a reason why Walter Mondale lost 49 states in 1984. America wants someone with a bit of populist rage, just not someone who sounds like Howard Dean on steroids. Probability of winning is 4% each.

Mark Warner – If there is one long-shot candidate who could capture the imagination it is Warner. Centrist, charismatic and from the South he was the choice of the ‘smart money’ up until his withdrawal last year. While he will have to do a lot of explaining, the ‘Anyone but Hillary’ movement could do far worse that choose him. Worth a shot at 0.1 on intrade.com.

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2 comments

  1. are you serious


  2. “Barack Obama – It would be ludicrous to completely write-off a candidate who is a clear second in the opinion polls and enjoys considerable media support. However, it might be equally ludicrous to expect a person who has little experience beyond some involvement in Illinois local politics and four years in the Senate to deal with the huge economic, social and foreign policy problems that American faces. At best Obama is another Gary Hart, whose main objective will be to leverage this race into either second place in the ticket or frontrunner status in 2012. At worst this campaign has the potential to destroy his credibility for the next cycle. Probability of winning the nomination is 10% Price on Intrade.com 17.9-18 OVERPRICED”

    Ahaaa. Yum, what flavor is that pie? “Humble” you say?



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