Road to the White House: Part One

June 24, 2007

Handicapping the Republican Nomination at this stage

Essentially the race is a three way tie between Rudolph Giuliani, Fred Thompson and John McCain with Fred Thompson slightly in the lead. Mitt Romney and other are trailing far behind at the moment.

Fred Thompson – The only social and economic conservative in the race who has a chance of beating Hillary Clinton in the national elections. A charismatic candidate who has made the strategically clever decision to avoid the expenditure of money and time that an earlier start to the campaign would entail. His response on the immigration issue was a master class in triangulation, keeping in tune with the Republican base while shifting the emphasis to sovereignty rather than simple immigrant bashing. However, he is light on experience and he has little to say on the key issues of the day. Estimated chances of winning the nomination is around 35%. Price on Intrade.com 29-31. SLIGHTLY UNDERPRICED

Rudy Giuliani – Most people, including myself, believed that his (relative) social liberalism would mean that he would have fallen from frontrunner status by now. However, it seems that either a general social liberalism is no longer such a bar to a potential Republican nominee, the leadership he showed (or was perceived to have shown) during 9/11 outweighs such considerations or the Republicans believe that he is the only candidate who can win. Most likely it is a combination of all three. However, it might just be that Republican voters are not paying attention at this stage and when the contest begins in earnest (probably at the start of September) he will lose. Estimated chances of winning the nomination is around 30%. Price on Intrade.com 30-31. FAIRLY VALUED

John McCain – In terms of background, electability and his ability to address the big issues he is the strongest candidate. However, his decision to hire managers and consultants from the establishment has proved disastrous. In an era where political opinion has moved to the left he seems to be using the rhetoric of George Bush in 2000, alienating his supporters without winning him any new friends. Consequently he is languishing in the polls and one source has described McCain’s campaign as, ‘a biplane on fire and spiraling down’. However, since McCain survived a literal plane crash he can surely survive a metaphorical one. The only question is whether he understands the radical surgery that he will need to perform on both his staff and his policies if he is to regain the maverick status. His continued support of immigration reform and the reconstruction of demonstrates that he hasn’t left his maverick status behind. The only question is whether he can extend the same logic to his tax and healthcare policies. Estimated chances of winning the nomination is around 25%. Price on Intrade.com 9-11. UNDERPRICED

Mitt Romney – Although Romney has a strong position in New Hampshire and he has no problem raising funds his campaign is going nowhere fast nationally and his decision to downplay his only asset, his healthcare plan, in favour of a conversion to social conservatism will win him no friends. McCain’s sarcastic comment that Romney should get out his small varmint gun and drive those Guatemalans off his lawn’, encapsulates Romney’s hypocrisy on immigration, his attempts to appeal to social conservatives and the ultimate futility of nativism. Essentially Romney can be dismissed as Giuliani without 9/11 or Giuliani’s charisma. Estimated chances of winning the nomination is around 5%. Price on Intrade.com 9-11. OVERPRICED

5. Brownback, Huckabee, Tancredo, Paul et al – With a field of eleven it seems inevitable that many will drop out relatively soon. Unless the Republican party have completely taken leave of their senses I can’t see Ron Paul or Tom Trancredo being nominated and even the boldest commentators agree that Sam Brownback is out of sync with the national mood. The only candidate I can see being even a minor factor is Mike Huckabee but even that is an extreme long-shot. Estimated chance of any of them winning the nomination is around 5%.

Therefore McCain seems a solid tip while Romney should be avoided.



  1. The republican party HAS lost its senses!! Its in shambles. You will be seeing the likes of Ron Paul and only Ron Paul when the primaries are over. The real republicans out there KNOW that only he has ability to take the white house away from the second coming of CLINTON. This country will end if she is inaugurated, She is a socialist/fascist, not at all a supporter of freedom. The Ron Paul train has left the station and is picking up speed!!! All one needs to do is take a look around at all of the support he gets at ALL of his apperances, the others dont even come close in drawing crowds!! Except Mrs Clinton so you can kinda see where this thing is going cantcha….

  2. Support on the ground doesn’t really equate to political support. I would also guess that only about 3-5% of the US Population (and roughly the same proportion of the GOP) are hardcore libertarians. In any case most of them will be put off by his 9/11 comments. I see him as another Keyes, Kunich or Sharpton drawing 1-2% of the vote in a multiple candidate race and 3-4% if he stays into the end.

    The only thing he may accomplish is losing his house seat at the next election.

  3. Cross posted at-

    Fred Thompson 2008

  4. http://www.911reasons.com

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