McCain leads Obama and Clinton in Ohio
May 15, 2008Good news for McCain in the Buckeye State
My latest projections are:
John McCain 46.92
Hillary Clinton 41.91
John McCain 46.72
Barack Obama 40.47
McCain beats both Obama and Clinton by 5.01% and 6.15% respectively. Despite the fact that Ohio has a 2.2% intrinsic bias towards the Republicans this is bad news because over the last 10 election cycles it has marched in lockstep with the national Democrat-Republican margin (with an R2=0.98). This demonstrates that McCain is doing very well in the big ‘heartland’ states.
Yes, Ohio is still a redish shade of purple. Mrs. Clinton does not even have a chance to beat McCain without winning Ohio. Mr. Obama can afford to lose Ohio as long as he wins a few other large swing states.
I’m not expecting Sen. Obama to carry Ohio. However, if it does, it’ll probably due to the Democratic establishment the state has (i.e. the LACK of Ken Blackwell).
However, if Sen. Obama carries the state, then I think it’ll be an early sign that Obama will be heading towards a landslide victory, not a minor-squeaker.