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Returning to National Greatness: How the GOP can reinvent itself

May 16, 2008

TPT offers some advice to the elephant

The Republican party seems to be in turmoil with a combination of poor congressional ratings and a shocking results in Mississippi producing a crisis of confidence that has seen the ravings of Ron Paul climb to the top of the bookseller charts. Given that every person with access to a computer has written about the direction the Republican party should be taking, I am going to outline my suggestions on what the Republican party should do. It might seem strange that a left-of-centre Brit, who is definitely not any sort of conservative, is giving advice to the GOP, but I would contend that the amount of money that I have staked on Obama not being president, and the small amount that I have on the Republicans retaking Congress makes my motivations more straightforward that those of other commentators. In any case distance from the subject has never stopped me before so it is not going to stop me now.

The first thing that the Republican party needs to do is to move to the centre on economic issues. The Democrats, even though they have been dominated by the left, have managed to gain a huge advantage on the economy, healthcare and taxation. Indeed, had September 11th not increased the importance of national security, and unleashed the forces that would move the Democrats sharply to the left, the Republican party would have lost badly in 2002 and a Democrat would now be occupying the White House. Even the Republican magazines were disgusted with the ‘no-government anarchism’ of Mitt Romney, Fred Thompson and Ron Paul when it dominated the Republican debates in the fall of 2004. Economic conservatism might have got some traction in the 70s and 80s when taxes were sky high, but they now seem like an anachronism in an age of increasing inequality. By all means the Republican party should remain an opponent of wasteful spending and a supporter of free trade, since these are good for society whatever philosophy you support, but it should recognise that the government needs to play a more active role in healthcare and education.

The Republican party also needs to stop treating people like Newt Gingrich with reverence. Although he occasionally has a few good ideas, such as his support for a McCain/Lieberman ticket, he is extremely unpopular in the country at large. Indeed, the latest poll gave Newt Gingrich a net approval rating of -27%. Similarly, although it may break the heart of Andrew Sullivan, Barry Goldwater should not be a model for the modern Republican party, unless they want to experience a repeat of 1964. Although many people believe that Bush was unpopular because he departed from ‘conservative’ (or more accurately paleo-libertarian) principles, the inconvenient truth is that it was precisely those departures (Iraq, No Child Left Behind) that have made him a middle-ranking president, as opposed to one of the worst. Even if one ignores the fact that the policies of the libertarian and conservative philosopher kings of the Republican Party are both unpopular and unworkable, their ‘leave us alone’ philosophy on guns directly runs against their distaste for immigrants and their love for limited government and the market runs against their support for attempts to find loopholes to the antitrust laws.

In essence the Republicans need to re-read David Brook’s 1997 essay, ‘A Return to National Greatness: A Manifesto for a Lost Creed’. In this David Brooks argues for a several key principles, ‘limited but energetic government, full-bore Americanism, active foreign policy, big national projects (such as the Panama Canal and the national parks), and efforts to smash cozy arrangements (like the trusts) that retarded dynamic meritocracy’. In essence this means a more socially conservative version of the Blairite/DLC agenda. Of course, you could argue that it has been Bush’s pursuit of this agenda that has got the GOP in these straits. However, it is not Bush’s foreign policy that is the reason that he is at twenty eight percent in the pollster.com polling averages, it has been his departure from it. This was illustrated in the 2004 exit polls where Bush beat Kerry by nearly twenty points (59.5 vs 40.2) among voters who were concerned about foreign policy (National Security and Iraq) but lost by a whopping 33% with those who focused more on domestic issues (Healthcare, Education and Taxes).

Indeed, the triumph of the anti-war and anti-everything wing of the Democratic party has opened an opportunity for the Republicans to capture the centre ground, as has the emergence, in Barack Obama, of a Democratic candidate who not only seems determined to drive a wedge between the generations but is more likely to nod his head to Jeremiah Wright’s rantings than view his country as a force for good. When even someone like Hillary Clinton is held to be too right-wing and too wedded to middle America for the Democratic party, you know that something is wrong. Of course, it is important to remember that there are potential flaws. This strategy should not be an imitation of David Cameron or Boris Johnson’s peculiar amalgam or elitism, isolationist (and in Boris Johnson’s case) racism. It also should be noted that ‘full-bore Americanism’ in this context means a celebration of a ‘shinning city on a hill’ and positive action to welcome immigrants out of the shadows of the underground economy into the American family, rather than a xenophobic immigration policy or the unwholesome dog whistling that Hillary Clinton and the North Carolina GOP have been engaged in. In essence this means combining the populism and honour of John McCain, combined with Giuliani’s optimism and Lieberman’s principled stance on foriegn policy and family values.

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A B- performance from McCain

May 16, 2008

TPT looks at McCain’s latest speech

John McCain gave a speech on what he hopes to achieve in his first term. Although it contains some good points, such as a pledges to set up a temporary worker programme and to work with Democrats he also makes several mistakes. Firstly, the speech is very short on specifics, adding little flesh to his idea. He also panders too much to the right in calling for a flat tax, which would be disastrous if people felt he actually meant it. Finally, although his optimistic vision for Iraq is good, his belief that most combat troops will be able to leave by 2013 is a huge mistake. This is because it blurs the difference between him and Obama on an issue that needs to be emphasised, it gives a hostage to fortune and reframes the debate about withdrawals rather than victory. I don’t want to sound like a broken record, but McCain is repeating Tony Blair’s mistake of being overly concerned about the base, when he needs to be reaching out to independant voters and moderate Democrats.

Frankly, the Republican ‘base’ is going to vote for him simply because he is not Obama. Therefore he needs to ignore them and start trying to aim for the political centre, even if it means putting forward policies that annoy Michelle Malkin, Rush Limbaugh and Newt Gingrich. Keeping quiet about his support for better regulation, a fairer society and a more humane immigration policy might have been necessary during the Republican primariesbut its a reciepe that increases the risk of an Obama Presidency in November.

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Betting Journal Update

May 15, 2008

TPT Reviews his betting journal

There hasn’t been much activity on my account because I’ve got three types of bet, neither of which are rational to trade. The first type is the bets that I think will win. The second type is what I would consider value bets, bets I expect to lose, but which are priced too low relative to their chances. The final group are bets I will definitely lose, but ones which are too expensive to trade away.

Bets I expect to win

GOP.NOM.MCCAIN = +39 contracts
GOP.PRES.OBAMA = -17 contracts
PRES.REP = +32
DEM.VP.WEBB = +10
DEM.VP.WARNER = +10
DEM.VP.NUNN = +10
DEM.VP.DASCHLE =+10
DEM.VP.KERREY=+10
DEM.VP.FIELD=+10

Value bets

DEM.NOM.CLINTONN = +24 contracts
CONNECTICUT.REP=+10

Cost less to let them expire

PRESIDENT.FIELD2008=+85
GOP.NOM.HUCKABEE=+13
GOP.NOM.GINGRICH=+30
GOP.NOM.THOMPSON(F)=+20
GOP.NOM.BARBOUR=+100
GOP.NOM.SANFORD=+100
HOUSE.GOP.2008=+9
BLOOMBERG.08.INDEPENDANT=+5

I also have some bets with Betfair, Ladbrokes & PaddyPower, which are kept strictly separate from my regular betting journal.

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Reason #1: Wright has rallied the GOP Base behind McCain

May 15, 2008

TPT begins his series on why Obama will not be President.

Barack Obama seems to have dodged a bullet in terms of ‘Wrightgate’ and the Democratic nomination. I am even prepared to admit that, due to a combination of media pressure and Obama’s belated denunciation of Wright, the issue may be dead as far as independents and Democrats go (though I believe that it will cause a steady trickle of voters towards McCain and it might make African-American voters more receptive to a ticket involving Condi Rice). However, I believe that one long-term consequence of the whole business is that the Republican ‘base’ is now solidly behind John McCain. This is important because McCain needs to move back to the centre on economic policy, get back to a more humane immigration policy and be bold in his vice-presidential pick. It is also important because they are useful in getting out of the vote, even if they have been one of the reasons why the Republican party is in such dire straits. Of course, just because McCain has the opportunity it doesn’t (unfortunately) mean that he is going to use it, but when he does start to make some bold gestures, the Republican equivalent of Daily Kos will be willing to sit on their hands.

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McCain leads Obama and Clinton in Ohio

May 15, 2008

Good news for McCain in the Buckeye State

My latest projections are:

John McCain 46.92
Hillary Clinton 41.91

John McCain 46.72
Barack Obama 40.47

McCain beats both Obama and Clinton by 5.01% and 6.15% respectively. Despite the fact that Ohio has a 2.2% intrinsic bias towards the Republicans this is bad news because over the last 10 election cycles it has marched in lockstep with the national Democrat-Republican margin (with an R2=0.98). This demonstrates that McCain is doing very well in the big ‘heartland’ states.

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Obama leads Clinton by 13.42 in Oregon

May 14, 2008

Hillary trails in Oregon

My projections for Oregon are:

Barack Obama 53.34
Hillary Clinton 39.92

It looks like Obama is going to win this state, but a win here would put Clinton right back in the game. Unfortunately, the only way for her to win is to score such a huge upset.

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Is Obama becoming less electable as the campaign goes on?

May 14, 2008

Evidence that Obamamania is coming to an end

This chart of my filtered polling data from early February to mid June clearly demonstrates that Barack Obama’s popularity, relative to that of Hillary Clinton, has fallen. In early February there was a clear gap between Clinton-McCain and Obama-McCain, peaking at a whopping 15.93% on February 16th (a McCain lead of 9.03% over Clinton compared with an Obama lead of 4.59). However, by February 22nd the relative gap had fallen to 0.8%, turning negative for the first time on the 30th. From then on both Clinton and Obama pretty moved in lockstep, although there were a few blips. However, since April 27th Clinton has always outperformed Obama relative to McCain. Given that Samplemiser has been pretty accurate in predicting the primaries, my view is that Obama’s bubble has been gradually bursting - though it is probably too late for Hillary Clinton.

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Both Clinton and Obama lead McCain

May 14, 2008

..but Hillary Clinton does better

seal-presidential-color.jpg

My new national projections (last poll ending May 12th) are:

Hillary Clinton 47.99
John McCain 43

Barack Obama 46.92
John McCain 45.88

Contrary to their previous statement, Rasmussen are still polling McCain vs Clinton matchups, although they are just choosing not to publicise them. Of course, this is rather convenient for Obama supporters since it hides the inconvenient truth, that while their candidate barely leads McCain by more than 1%, Hillary has nearly a 5% lead. Of course, Obama is still the favourite for the Democratic nomination, buut still it should be pointed out that Hillary is currently more electable.

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Is this McCain’s chance for a ‘Sister Soulja’ moment?

May 13, 2008

Why McCain turn this to his advantage

This attempt by Ron Paul supporters to use the threat of chaos at the Republican convention to gain a speaking spot for their candidate presents an opportunity for his campaign. Although it would be easy to buy Paul’s supporters off with a graveyard speaking spot he needs to make it clear that their paleo-anarchist philosophy has no place within his tent. He can do this by refusing Paul a spot at the convention, devoting a speech to attacking Paul’s philosophy of foreign policy and government and by selecting one of the two vice-presidential choices who most directly go against the isolationism and racist associations of the Texas congressman. This will not be the first time McCain has directly confronted Paul, but it needs to be done again, both for McCain’s campaign and for the future direction of American politics.

Of course this could lead to Ron Paul running as an independent or endorsing Barack Obama (I doubt Paul would follow Ann Coulter and endorse Hillary Clinton if she was the Democratic nominee), but for every vote that McCain could lose to Paul, I would guess that he would gain five from independent Democrats and Independents, who would be pleased to see him standing up for what he believes in.

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Clinton leads Obama by 27.35 in Kentucky

May 12, 2008

Obama manages to close the gap a little bit

My projections for Kentucky are:

Hillary Clinton 58.13
Barack Obama 30.78

Hillary’s lead has fallen from a peak of 35.71% on April 14th to just over 25%. However, this is still a crushing lead.

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Clinton leads Obama by 36.92 in West Virginia.

May 12, 2008

Clinton still on course for a crushing victory in WV

My latest projection for West Virginia is

Hillary Clinton 60.84
Barack Obama 22.92

Although Obama has closed the gap when compared with the last poll, he is still doing worse than he was doing at the start of this month. Unless he can get the margin to below 25%, Hillary will be on her way to becoming a plausible candidate again.

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Time to bet on Brown doing the decent thing

May 11, 2008

Time to bet against Gordon Brown

The following bet from the Irish Bookmaker Paddy Power must be excellent value, given the problems that Gordon Brown is finding himself in. The Labour party are not as brutal about their leaders as either the Tories or the Liberal Democrats, but even they will eventually take account of dismal local election results and jawdropping polling figures.

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Are Daily Kos’s “chickens coming home to roost”?

May 11, 2008
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McCain still leads both Clinton and Obama in Missouri

May 11, 2008

McCain leading Obama by over 6% in the Show-me state

missouri.jpg

My latest projections for Missouri are:

John McCain 45.12
Hillary Clinton 42.99

John McCain 47.14
Barack Obama 40.98

This is bad news for both Clinton and Obama, the latter especially. If the heavy favourite for the Democratic nomination trails McCain by over 6% in the ultimate bellweather state after being all but crowned the nominee by the media, how can he hope to win the election? Of course, you can point out that Bush carried Missouri by a similar margin in 2004, but historically Missouri evenly matches the Democratic/Republican vote margin, without being biased to one party or another.

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How will the Bush Presidency be viewed in ten years time?

May 11, 2008

TPT evaluates the Bush Presidency

At the moment George W Bush is not viewed very highly by the American public. At the moment the latest estimates are that less than a third approve of the job that he is doing. Indeed, Pollster.com put hiis approval rating at a dismal 28.3%. His immigration proposals went down in the flames last summer and he is assailed by the right as a big spending liberal while two towns in Vermont voted to arrest him and Dick Cheney if they ever dare to enter the city limits. Some people even believe that the damage to his reputation extends beyond Bush himself with the respected commentator Professor Larry Sabato declaring, in an article last summer pondering possible Republican running mates, that ‘(Jeb Bush’s) last name is tarnished for a generation’. Democrats leaning pressure groups are running ads trying to portray John McCain as ‘four more years of Bush’. However, although it is unlikely that Bush’s reputation will have dramatically changed by November, although past President’s tend to a enjoy a small uplift in the last few weeks of their presidency, it is interesting to try to evaluate Bush’s administration over the past eight years.

Indeed, it is difficult to realise from contemporary views that venerated figures John F Kennedy and Ronald Reagan were, at various points in their careers, highly controversial figures who experienced bouts of unpopularity. One way to view the Presidents since 1928, which is popular with historians, is to divide them by tiers. Although it varies from historian to historian I would say that the first tier would includes presidents such as Franklin Roosevelt and Harry Truman who had major achievements in both the domestic and foreign spheres and fundamentally changed the tone on the political culture. The second tier includes those who left their mark but either had enough flaws, such as Lyndon Johnson and Ronald Reagan, to disbar themselves from the first tier or did not spend enough time in office, like JFK, to run up a solid list of achievements. The third tier is for those who were too controversial or bland for the second tier, such as Dwight Eisenhower, while the fourth and fifth tiers are for mediocrities (George HW Bush and Gerald Ford) and disasters (Richard Nixon, Herbert Hoover and Jimmy Carter) respectively.

So which tier does Bush fall into and how does he compare with Clinton? If you look at domestic achievements, then Clinton did have a tendency to focus on ‘small ball’ but he did succeed in chipping away at the more obvious problems, with action to reduce gun crime and expand access to healthcare for children. In contrast Bush managed to turn a large surplus into a deficit with tax cuts that were skewed towards the wealthy and his immigration package, although surprisingly sensible and progressive, folded in the face of Republican opposition. However, Bush did take the first tentative steps to raising educational standards, with the No Child Left Behind Act. In terms of upholding the integrity of the office and changing the tone of American politics, both Clinton and Bush failed. However, Bush’s problem was that he created were a culture where special interests and donors held sway and a slash and burn style of politics that focused on dog-whistles and smears.

However, in foreign policy the positions are reversed. Although the Clinton administration did eventually intervene in Bosnia and again in Kosovo, this was done at the behest of world leaders like Tony Blair and congressional leaders like Bob Dole. Although the Bush administration has been criticised for taking its world view from an episode of 24, most notoriously in terms of military interrogation, the Clinton administration was definitely guilty of buying into the West Wing view that all world problems can be solved with a bit of diplomacy and a few photo opportunities. Bill Clinton would probably have liberated Afghanistan and might even have attacked Saddam, but he would not have been able to face down the United Nations, nor would he have kept troops in Iraq for five years. Clinton also lacked Bush’s philosophy of spreading democracy, instead preferring to take his guidance from whatever book happened to be on his nightstand that evening, or whatever advisor had spoken to him last.

Ironically, it was Bush’’s one shout out to Clintonian policy making that nearly undid all the gains in Iraq, namely the decision to convene the Iraq Study Group. This decision made it appear as though he was not in control of foreign policy, and left many people (including myself) convinced that he was about to announce a withdrawal from Iraq after the mid term elections. Even this mistake, and the failure to send enough troops, was overcome with the surge strategy, which has succeeded beyond everyone’s wildest dreams. Another irony is that, the unilateralist has probably done more to kick-start the process of making the UN a more effective and accountable organisation than Clinton the internationalist, although a lot more work needs to be done. So, to conclude, the Bush administration was definitely a middle tier presidency. In Bush’s case he has been ineffective in the domestic fields and has lowered the tone of politics. The decision decision to make promotion of democracy and human right an integral part of America’s relations with the rest of the world, even if it means unpopularity both domestic and abroad is commendable. So in that sense Bush’s presidency is a presidency redeemed, although hopefully his sucessor can raise the tone of politics.